Text from the U.S. JGOFS Implementation Plan for Synthesis and Modeling The Role of Oceanic Processes in the Global Carbon Cycle
[Full text at: http://usjgofs.whoi.edu/mzweb/smp/smpimp.htm]
The central objective of the U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP) is to synthesize knowledge gained from U.S. JGOFS and related studies into a set of models that reflect our current understanding of the ocean carbon cycle and its associated uncertainties. Emphasis will be given to processes that control partitioning of carbon among oceanic reservoirs and the implications of this partitioning for exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. To this end, the following specific SMP goals were adopted.
To synthesize our knowledge of inorganic and organic carbon fluxes and inventories, both natural and anthropogenic.
To identify and quantify the principal processes that control the partitioning of carbon among oceanic reservoirs and between the ocean and atmosphere on local and regional scales, with a view towards synthesis and prediction on a global scale.
To determine the mechanisms responsible for spatial and temporal variability in biogeochemical processes that control partitioning of carbon among oceanic reservoirs and between the ocean and atmosphere.
To assess and implement strategies for scaling data and models to seasonal, annual, and interannual time scales and to regional and global spatial scales.
To improve our ability to monitor and predict the role of oceanic processes in determining current and future partitionings of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and to evaluate uncertainties and identify gaps in our knowledge of these processes.
These goals will be addressed by three major program elements:
- Global and regional mass balances: synthesis of improved estimates of natural and anthropogenic carbon inventories and of fluxes of carbon and related biologically active chemical substances.
- Mechanistic controls of local carbon balances: identification and modeling of the principal processes that control within-ocean and ocean-atmosphere partitioning of carbon and related biologically active chemical substances, with a view towards developing regional and global syntheses and models.
- Extrapolation, monitoring, and prediction: development and application of methods that will allow knowledge gained on small spatial and temporal scales to be scaled to seasonal, annual, and interannual time scales and to regional and global spatial scales; and development and application of methods that will improve our ability to monitor and predict the role of oceanic processes in determining the partitioning of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere and the resulting feedback to the climate system.
Implicit in this effort is the quantitative evaluation and estimation of associated uncertainties, as well as the identification of gaps in our knowledge that may significantly compromise monitoring and prediction of carbon partitioning.