Project: Environmental signal analysis: Monitoring the impacts of climate change on rocky intertidal ecosystem across a cascade of scales

Project description from NSF award abstract:
The rocky intertidal zone is a model ecosystem for evaluating the impacts of weather, climate, and climate change on natural ecosystems, as animals and plants living in this habitat frequently live very close to their thermal tolerance limits. Moreover, two organisms exposed to identical physical environments can experience radically different conditions at the level of the niche. Environmental signals measured at large spatial and temporal scales must be translated to the level of an organism's niche to hindcast, nowcast, and forecast the effects of climate and weather on the survival, reproduction and ecological interactions of organisms. The investigator has developed models and sensors for several species of intertidal organisms, specifically the mussel Mytilus californianus and the predatory seastar Pisaster ochraceus. Data relevant to mussels has been collected nearly continuously at a series of 9 sites along the west coast of North America since 1999, and these data show that patterns of physiological stress are likely to be far more complex than those predicted based on measurements at the habitat level (i.e. by buoy or satellite). Increases in body temperature have been observed over the last 5 years that are not reflected by onshore or offshore water or air temperature measurements, but instead are the result of complex interactions between multiple environmental parameters. Moreover, preliminary results suggest that predator and prey may experience markedly different patterns of temperature in space and in time. This result has significant implications for where and when we look for evidence of the impacts of climate change. The investigator will continue monitoring intertidal temperatures, currently the only long-terms series of its kind, and will expand the study to include the predatory seastar Pisaster through the use of thermally-matched sensors. He will use these data to test a series of hypotheses relating to patterns of risk of high and low temperature extremes. Data will also serve as an important source of information for physiological, ecological and biogeographic studies conducted by labs throughout the US. The investigator will produce a searchable, publicly-accessible database where individual temperature records can be downloaded by researchers and applied to physiological and ecological studies.